Rebel advances near the Bisie tin mine in DRC risk a major supply shock. Emanuel Datt on the pricing impact and the case for Metals X (ASX: MLX).
~ 1 min. read
By: Datt Capital
March 14, 2025: Emanuel Datt, Chief Investment Officer at Datt Capital, has raised concerns about the potential impact of escalating conflict in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) on global tin supply.
"The DRC is a significant global producer of tin, contributing approximately 8% of global supply," said Datt. "Tin is a critical metal, primarily used in electronic applications such as computer chips, where demand is inelastic. Any disruption to supply could have a material impact on pricing."
The Democratic Republic of Congo is one of the world's most significant tin-producing regions, rich in cassiterite- the primary tin ore.
In recent weeks, M23 rebels, backed by the Rwandan government, have captured significant territory in the eastern DRC. "This development is particularly concerning given the proximity of their advances to the world-class Bisie Tin Mine, which alone accounts for approximately 6% of global tin production," Datt stated.
"We consider the risk of appropriation or operational disruption to be high, given the economic importance of the Bisie mine to local communities and the DRC government. Any interruption in production from this site could result in a significant spike in tin prices," he added.
These concerns were validated this week when tin prices jumped to eight-month highs following an announcement by Alphamin Resources that it would temporarily cease operations at the Bisie tin mine due to unrest in North Kivu Province. Prices of the soldering metal on the London Metal Exchange (LME) surged $36,000 per metric ton, the highest level since July. Alphamin produced more than 17,000 tons of tin last year, accounting for circa 6% of global tin supply.
With global supply chains already strained, the situation presents an opportunity for alternative producers. "Metals X (ASX: MLX) stands out as the sole listed Western producer of tin, operating the Renison mine in Tasmania," Datt said. "The company is well-positioned with several growth projects and a strong financial position, holding over $200 million in cash."
Datt Capital continues to monitor the evolving situation closely and assess its implications for global commodity markets.
Download the full PDF: M23 rebel advances in the DRC pose risk to global tin supply
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Datt Capital Pty Ltd
ABN 37 124 330 865
AFSL 542100
390 St Kilda Rd, Melbourne VIC 3004
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