Since our last update, Adriatic Metals has significantly progressed as a company.
The company has delivered an outstanding Pre-Feasibility Study ('PFS') that confirms the world-class nature of the Vares project. The headline figures from the PFS are: Post-tax NPV8: US$1.04 billion IRR: 113% LOM: 14 years at an annual processing throughput of 800ktpa average annual EBITDA yr 1-5: US$251 million ~45% of revenue projected to come from gold & silver Capex of US$173 million 1.2 year payback period for capex $6 in NPV8 for every $1 in capex spent 89% resource conversion to reserve status By any measure, the PFS confirms the Vares Project as possibly the world's best undeveloped mining project that will be viable in virtually any commodity price environment. The company has delineated the vast majority of the resource to reserve status, providing the highest level of confidence prior to mining development. The mine plan appears to be at a very detailed stage with what appears to be a 1m block model being used. Raw cashflow metrics are superb and the NPV8/capex ratio is amongst the highest that we have seen. The processing plant is expected to produce 4 separate bulk concentrates: copper-lead, zinc, pyrite & barite. The next major step for the Vares Project will be the delivery of the Bankability Feasibility Study ('BFS') which is expected in March 2021. The project's permitting process continues to advance steadily, with several precursor permits having been achieved with the full exploitation permits likely not far behind. The delays experienced to date in the projects permitting are not unusual for any mining jurisdiction let alone in Bosnia and Herzegovina where the mining industry is still in its infancy. The company has been publicly listed for a mere 30 months; to bring a discovery to the completion of a PFS within this time-frame is a tremendous achievement and we observe the team are still maintaining great momentum. The acquisition of Tethyan Resources has been completed and we have started to see good initial results coming through from Kizevak and Sastavci (pending). Considering the historical resources and tenor at these two deposits, we expect significant exploration to be conducted in the near term over these assets. We believe it's not unreasonable to anticipate that these assets have the potential to reach production approximately 18-24 months, post the development of Vares. Adriatic have also been awarded a significant land extension to its current concession agreement, increasing its landholding in the area by 400% to 40 square kms. The new landholding encompasses several historic resources and provides a further avenue of growth for the company. Adriatic have significantly built up their team of late, most notably with the appointments of Sanela Karic as non-executive director and Dominic Roberts as head of corporate affairs. Karic is a very well-credentialed Bosnian lawyer familiar with the operating environment in-country. She has been appointed Chairperson of the board's ESG committee and will be an integral part of Adriatic's objective to maintain a high level of ESG standards. Roberts is an experienced hand with 25 years of experience in the Balkans. In his most recent prior role, he oversaw the permitting and development of a mine within the same canton where the Vares Project is located. Along with Adriatic's Bosnia General Manager - Adnan Teletovic, Roberts will be a key person in further progressing the permitting process for the project. Fabian Baker also joins the Adriatic team, as part of the Tethyan transaction, being appointed as corporate development manager. Michael Rawlinson was appointed non-executive Chairman of the Board in place of Peter Bilbe who stays on in a non-executive capacity. This change was in recognition of Adriatic progressing from a mineral explorer to a mineral developer. Overall, we consider the team looks to be much more fit for purpose relative to 6 months ago and provides the company with a strong platform for further growth. On the financing front, Adriatic have secured terms from two strategic investors: the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development ('EBRD'), and Queen's Road Capital ('QRC') to finance pre-development works. The EBRD are an institution dedicated to investing to build market economies, with a special emphasis on best in class ESG. Initially focused on the former Eastern bloc, it has expanded its operations considerably. The EBRD have agreed to invest US$8 million in an equity placement following extensive due diligence and the entry into a project support agreement where Adriatic will comply with the EBRD's ESG requirements. QRC are a specialist listed mining finance company majority-owned by a consortium of well-known businessmen and billionaires in Jack Cowin, Andrew Forrest, Brett Blundy and Li Ka-Shing. QRC have agreed to invest US$20 million into an unsecured convertible note, paying an 8.5% coupon, convertible at a price of approximately AUD$2.80 per share. This instrument may be redeemed via a project financing facility or other secured debt financing. We expect a range of project financing structures to begin being evaluated in preparation for the completion of the BFS in early 2021. We have no doubt that a project financing facility will be keenly sought by market participants, especially given the extraordinarily robust financial metrics. We also note that the legal dispute between Sandfire Resources ('SFR') and Adriatic which we have previously written about here: LINK, has now been settled. SFR have agreed to pay AUD$8.65 million to maintain a 16.2% holding in Adriatic. The resolution of this dispute will enable the company to move forward without the distraction of a lawsuit as well as providing certainty for investors. At present, Adriatic Metals has an equity value of approximately US$300 million. At this value, the company's Price/NPV ratio is still only 29%, vs a peer average of 55% for financed projects as previously discussed here: LINK. Much has been written by others about the deficit of high quality mineral deposits available for development. Adriatic's assets are amongst the best undeveloped projects in the world and have the potential to propel the company directly into the mid-tier of mining companies, should Adriatic be able to stay independent till production. High-quality projects should trade closer to 1x Price/NPV at BFS stage, and we believe the Adriatic will continue to close this valuation gap as the project continues to progress through further studies and permitting. We consider the company vulnerable to corporate activity at these prices, and increasingly vulnerable as the project is progressed further down the development pathway if there is no subsequent price rerate. Disclaimer: This article does not take into account your investment objectives, particular needs or financial situation; and should not be construed as advice in any way. The author holds shares in ADT. Strategic Energy Resources ('SER') are a company specialising in frontier and undercover mineral exploration. We find this junior exploration opportunity compelling for a number of reasons: namely the strong technical management team, the ability to generate projects in regions prospective for tier 1 mineral deposits, and the company's existing suite of high-quality mineral assets all at a relatively low market valuation.
Canobie Province SER's flagship project is what we refer to as the Canobie Province, an enormous land holding of approximately 1500 square km in Northern Queensland. The Canobie Province encompasses the entire northern belt of the Mt Isa Eastern Succession. Contextually, the Mt Isa Province is one of the most heavily mineralised terranes globally and geophysics clearly show that these key structures continue to trend north under sedimentary cover to the areas now held by SER. Indeed the large Ernst Henry IOCG mineral complex lies under 60m of cover to the north east of Cloncurry, along the same trend as Canobie. The total resource endowment of Ernst Henry is well over 200 million tonnes of ore, and has been continuously mined since 1997. This provides an idea of the size of the potential opportunity at hand at Canobie. The largest operational challenge in the Canobie area is the depth of cover, around 400 metres in thickness; also the fact that the cover is conductive which makes it difficult to use conventional electrical geophysics. Despite these challenges, the region has always been regarded as a promising, frontier locality for potential Tier 1 mineral deposits - similar to how the Paterson Province in Western Australia was once regarded before the discovery of Rio Tinto's Winu and Newcrest's Haverion discoveries. Our analysis of historical drill results in the district showed that an extraordinarily large percentage of holes hit some form of mineralisation; even more extraordinary when considering the 'blind' nature of the drilling and mineralisation due to the depth of cover. Our interpretation of this data leads us to believe that the Canobie Province encompasses an extremely fertile mineral district whose scale is yet to be revealed. This is further reinforced by studies conducted by Geoscience Australia, which rate the Canobie Province as possessing the highest potential for Iron Oxide Copper Gold (IOCG) deposits. Minerals discovered to date include high-grade gold, nickel-copper sulphides as well as anomalous uranium, platinum, and rare earths. The most advanced prospect within the Canobie Province is the Saxby Gold Project, where 200 metres of strike has been defined to date at relatively high gold grades between 10 and 15 grams per tonne along with lower grades of copper. Intriguingly, the key structure has not yet been tested and the prospect remains open to the north, south and the west. In addition, studies by previous explorers indicate the gold is largely non-refractory in nature which is positive. Favourable metallurgy can be a critical factor in determining the commerciality of mineral deposits. SER expect to commence the next drilling campaign at Saxby sometime this month. The Tea Tree nickel-copper prospect is another lead which we find very interesting. Historical drilled by Mt Isa Mines (MIM) and Anglo American, Tea Tree has been considered by past explorers to be prospective for a Voisey's Bay/Norilsk (large-scale) style, magmatic nickel-copper system given the size of the gravity anomaly which extends around 8km in length. Past exploration holes have hit large intersects of gabbro host rock, some over 300m in length, with anomalous nickel-copper sulphides. In addition, the historical holes have encountered mineralisation over a strike length over 2km in length, definitively proving the potential for a large scale system at depth. Anglo American who last explored the prospect concluded that the gravity anomaly could be explained by a deeper, yet to be tested intrusion. There is clearly more work to be done here. Other exploration assets SER also hold 2 other projects in Tier 1 locations, Billa Kallina situated within the Olympic IOCG Province in South Australia and Tennant Creek East in the Northern Territory. The Olympic IOCG Province hold numerous Tier 1 mineral deposits such the world scale Olympic Dam Mine, Oak Dam West (both BHP), Prominent Hill, Carrapateena (both OZL) etc. Successful exploration in this region has typically been via targeting using gravity and magnetic surveys along with other conventional exploration techniques. Billa Kallina is a long recognised prospect defined by gravity and magnetics however, to date untested due to the depth of cover. We expect this anomaly to be tested in the coming months. Tennant Creek has a long and proud mining history. Today, much of the future exploration activity is expected to be directed towards the East. This area has recently been opened up for mineral explorers with a moratorium being lifted in late 2019. This has led to a land grab in the region with many companies, including Newcrest, securing ground. Interestingly, Newcrest and SER appear to have secured the most prospective ground for IOCG potential according to Geoscience Australia. We also note that the National Drilling Initiative will be drilling several holes on a tenement bounded by Newcrest and SER which should provide valuable geological information to all explorers in the region. SER also hold a small suite of passive and legacy assets encompassing a joint venture with FMG in South Australia (Myall Creek), a mineral sands resource in Ambergate and an investment in a private graphene company. In conclusion, we believe that the value of SER is underpinned by the quality of its exploration assets all situated in regions where the potential for Tier 1 mineral discoveries is high. Its suite of passive and legacy assets can also potentially be monetised in time. The strong emphasis on value creation via project generation and exploration in genuine Tier 1 potential locations is attractive and has the potential to provide highly asymmetric returns for shareholders in the case of exploration success. Several value accretive catalysts lie ahead over the next 6 months via the completion of drilling programs and associated targeting works. Disclaimer: This article does not take into account your investment objectives, particular needs or financial situation; and should not be construed as advice in any way. The author holds shares in SER. We wrote this piece as a way to share our opinion and thoughts on the evolution of the relationship between Adriatic Metals and Sandfire Resources. This piece is solely opinion and should not be construed as investment advice in anyway. The relationship between Adriatic Metals and Sandfire Resources has been complex. In theory, the relationship should be positive; a junior miner with a world class development project allied and supported by a credible and proven Australian mine builder and operator. In practice, the relationship has seemingly been complicated by the consistent increase of Sandfire's holding in Adriatic and presumably it's influence. We thought it would be an interesting exercise to go through Adriatic's disclosures to observe how the relationship has developed around Sandfire's actions. The relationship began innocuously in May 2018 with both companies seemingly enthused by the strategic and technical expertise offered by Sandfire to assist in progressing Adriatic's projects. Sandfire became the largest shareholder outside the management team as part of this deal and were afforded an anti-dilution right under certain circumstances. The ASX granted a waiver of its listing rule 6.18 under certain conditions in August 2018. Adriatic Metals conducts its first capital raise post listing, raising $10 million with Sandfire participating to maintain its stake in November 2018. Between June and August 2019, Sandfire raises its stake in Adriatic by buying shares on market. It's interest in Adriatic rises from 7.7% to 12.8%. Adriatic conduct their next capital raise of $25 million, with Sandfire subscribing for their pro-rata interest. Sandfire appoint a nominee, John Richards, a respected Australian mining director to Adriatic's board in November 2019. ASX amend their listing rules in December 2019. In particular, the rules around strategic relationships and anti-dilution rights are significantly amended effectively invalidating prior waivers granted. The ASX discloses that its needs to be satisfied that the basis for the original waiver granted still holds true and a genuine strategic relationship still exists between the entities. In addition, the ASX must also need to be satisfied that the terms of the anti-dilution right remain appropriate and equitable to minority shareholders. Notably, the waiver must be initiated by the entity that held the benefit of the anti-dilution right, ie. Sandfire. Source: ASX guidance note 25 Sandfire continue to increase their stake in Adriatic on-market to 15.8%. Sandfire do not disclose the change in interest to the ASX but rather Adriatic disclose the change of Sandfire's interest in December 2019. Sandfire withdraw the nomination of John Richards from the Adriatic board who consequently resigns in July 2020. Sandfire commence litigation against Adriatic, alleging contraventions of the strategic agreement between the two companies in July 2020. This puts Adriatic shareholders in a peculiar position. We have Sandfire, a substantial shareholder of the company, alleging that Adriatic has contravened the strategic agreement between the two companies - without any specific discussion of what particular points of the agreement have been contravened. In addition, Adriatic shareholders can note the increasingly tense language and relationship between the two companies over time which ultimately begets the question - What is Sandfire's ultimate goal?
Ultimately this raises a number of questions for shareholders of both Sandfire and Adriatic, namely: What is the specific basis for Sandfire's claim given that they have participated in every capital raise conducted by Adriatic Metals? Have Sandfire submitted a waiver application to the ASX, given the onus is on the benefiting party to apply for the waiver? If so, has this waiver application been rejected and in what form? Given the litigation has been initiated by Sandfire against Adriatic, has the strategic relationship between the two companies effectively ceased? How long has this been the case for and at what point did it effectively cease? Given that ASX listing rule 10.11 is considered as the fundamental protective clause for minority investors, is it appropriate that this rule is waived to the potential detriment of Adriatic's minority shareholders, especially if the strategic relationship appears to have effectively ceased? Why is Sandfire, a company worth almost $1 billion, fighting over $8 million worth of stock that it is purportedly owed? What was the reason for Sandfire removing their nominee director from the board of Adriatic? Was it to notionally circumvent ASX listing rule 10.11.3 - substantial (10%+) holders with board representation? Why has Sandfire been non-compliant with general ASX requirements regarding substantial shareholder disclosures, especially around December 2019? What is Sandfire's current interest in Adriatic Metals? Is Sandfire's eventual intention to control or takeover Adriatic or Adriatic's projects in some form at some point in the future? Without adequate disclosure of the issues identified above, it is our opinion that the lawsuit brought by Sandfire against Adriatic appears to be frivolous at best. Disclaimer: This article does not take into account your investment objectives, particular needs or financial situation; and should not be construed as advice in any way. The author holds shares in ADT. At the beginning of May, we highlighted SelfWealth ('SWF') as an outstanding growth opportunity [HERE] that would benefit from exposure to the COVID19 curfews and the generally higher levels of market volatility. In this update, we review the company's progress based on its latest regulatory disclosures and compare how it is tracking relative to our internal growth model.
Since our article, the market has recognised the growth thematic embedded within the SelfWealth business model. Consequently, the share price has tripled from 22c on the date of the release to over 66c at the close of trade on the 9th of July. The company's results did not disappoint, more than meeting our expectations and those we shared with other market participants. The latest quarterly release once again demonstrates the strong tailwinds the company is experiencing with quarter-on-quarter ('QoQ') growth in active traders of 44% compared to the previous quarter. Operating revenue and trade volumes grew over 100% and the company achieved its first-ever positive quarterly cashflow from operating activities. The value of client cash on the platform remained stable at $366 million despite very strong trade volumes. All these metrics affirm the company's ability to capture a disproportionate share of trader 'churn' and subsequently increase its market share; which was a core aspect of our investment thesis. We believe the company will be able to maintain its strong growth momentum given the market and product fundamentals whilst increasing the 'monetisation efficiency' of its platform. We expect this increase in monetisation to be driven by several organic growth initiatives the company has been working on that are projected to be rolled out over the next 6 months. The first is a revamp of the SelfWealth mobile application which we anticipate will be a market leader in customer usability and experience. It is a known fact that two factors are strongly aligned with customer satisfaction and use; consequently, we anticipate that this will lead to an increase in time spent on the platform and potentially a rise in trade volume. The second large initiative is the launch of US equity trading via the SelfWealth platform. The US equity markets are the larger and most followed in the world. The ability for SelfWealth customers to purchase direct shareholdings in global market leaders like Amazon and Google, will no doubt increase trade volumes on the platform and provide valuable diversification from reliance solely on local equity market trade volumes. Our base growth model assumed that SelfWealth could grow to 80,000 users by the end of June 2021. The latest disclosure demonstrates that active users currently sit over 46,000, implying on average that monthly growth in users should at least 3,000 users per month. The past 6 months have exceeded this figure by a large amount, so we remain confident that our base case will be achieved ahead of the time frame we originally projected. The business model dictates that each user acquired becomes increasingly profitable as overall customer numbers grow. This adage rings true in terms of valuing the company on more traditional measures such as 'value attributed per user' or conventional financial metrics such as potential earnings multiples. One observation we have seen in high growth sectors is that scale begets scale. As the user base grows and broadens from its initial dominant user demographic, we often see the next leg of growth driven by strong uptake by broader mainstream society attracted by a compelling product offering. We believe we will observe a similar dynamic with SelfWealth going forward. SelfWealth remains strongly capitalised with cash holdings of over $5 million and no debt. We believe the company is in a position to maintain its current profitability as well as build upon its strong market and product position. We believe the company remains compelling long-term value at its current market value. Disclaimer: This article does not take into account your investment objectives, particular needs or financial situation; and should not be construed as advice in any way. The author holds shares in SWF. Following on from our recent update on Adriatic Metals Serbian acquisition, we share some thoughts on the short term outlook for Adriatic.
Adriatic aim to complete a Pre-feasibility study ('PFS') on the Vares Project by September 2020 and a Definitive Feasibility Study ('DFS') by January 2021; having previously completed a Scoping Study on the project in late 2019. The Scoping Study had highlighted the world-class economics of the Vares project with the key metrics being: Post Tax NPV8 of USD$916 Post Tax IRR of 107% Capex payback period of 8 months LOM Capex of US$178 million (inc. 30% contingency) Since the completion of the Scoping Study, we note that Adriatic have made material progress on a number of fronts. The company have successfully discovered mineralisation outside the maiden Mineral Resource Estimate ('MRE') area on which the Scoping Study was based on. Phase 2 metallurgical testwork has led to materially better outcomes than those assumed in the Scoping Study itself with the new copper concentrate proposed being 95% payable vs only 30% assumed in the study. We estimate that a revised MRE has the potential to increase ore tonnage by at least 25% at a similar grade as the initial MRE. We estimate the combination of the increased MRE and payable metal may lead to a larger NPV8 figure in the PFS relative to the previous Scoping Study. We estimate that an NPV8 of circa USD$1.2 billion (AUD$1.85 billion, 0.65 FX) using similar metal price assumptions as assumed in the Scoping Study, may be achieved in the PFS. As such we consider Adriatic to be extremely undervalued trading at a fully diluted value of around AUD$250 million which is only circa 14% of our estimated NPV8 figure for the PFS. We have noted in the past that high-quality projects generally trade or transact at small discounts to NPV - HERE. Adriatic's management team are directly aligned with shareholders via their substantial shareholdings in Adriatic. They have a track record of obtaining maximum value from funds spent and being cost-conscious evidenced by the recent disclosure that they are running $2 million under budget for the PFS works. There is a strong incentive to reduce dilution for the existing shareholders and preserve the value of their own holdings. Adriatic have disclosed that they are funded until the completion of the BFS and may require additional capital at some stage next year. We believe that it may be prudent to sell a royalty over the Vares project after the completion of the BFS. This would minimise dilution for existing shareholders given the present large value differential, provide a large capital injection and cover a large portion of the project's CAPEX requirement. A net smelter royalty ('NSR') is a very common form of royalty in the mineral space. Usually, it is calculated as gross revenue less transport, insurance, and refining costs. A rough rule of thumb we like to use is that a 1% NSR is equivalent to a 4-5% working interest in the royalty property. An NSR owner benefits in a number of ways:
Some factors that determine the value of an NSR are:
A recent NSR transaction was where the market-leading royalty company, Franco-Nevada, created a 1% NSR over Solgold's Alpala project in exchange for US$100 million. This project is at a similar stage to Adriatic with a PEA/scoping study having been completed in 2019. The NSR was sold over this project to fund DFS study costs vs Adriatic that would require capital to bring the Vares project into production. An NSR created over the Vares project would be highly sought after and highly valued given the world-class nature of the orebody, project financial metrics and near-production status; and we believe may attract a similar valuation as the Solgold royalty. Once the Vares project is producing, surplus cash flows could be invested in the development and exploration of its numerous brownfield and greenfield prospects across Bosnia and Serbia. We feel there is clear potential for Adriatic to evolve into a mid-tier miner once Vares is developed. The recently acquired Serbian assets provide another valuable expansion opportunity in addition to the clear exploration potential remaining in Bosnia We believe the key Catalysts over the short term remain:
Disclaimer: This article does not take into account your investment objectives, particular needs or financial situation; and should not be construed as advice in any way. The author holds shares in Adriatic Metals (ADT). Adriatic Metals announced on the 11/5/2020 that they had reached an agreement to acquire Tethyan Resources, a Serbia focused explorer, in an all-stock deal in exchange for 6.9% of the company. Adriatic appears to be focused primarily on the brownfield Serbian assets, Kizevak and Sastavci.
There are very similar historical parallels between the Raska district and Vares as a locality where Adriatic have their present operations. The Raska district has a long history as a mining region. The Kizevak and Sastavci mines were discovered in the mid-1970s and operated by the Yugoslav geological survey between 1984 and 2000 when mining ceased due to the Balkans conflict. The projects benefit from numerous infrastructure advantages including water, power, road and rail access all within 5 kilometres, and a local workforce with a long history of mining. No significant exploration work has been conducted on either licence since mining ceased, and the projects offer significant exploration potential for the expansion of existing mineralisation along strike and down dip from the open pits at Kizevak and Sastavci. The historical deposits have been untouched by modern exploration techniques. Interestingly, Tethyan has historically only been able to explore the areas surrounding the historical mines as it did not hold the ground containing the historical mines. However, this ground has now been acquired as part of the Adriatic transaction and only a relatively small amount of drilling needs to be done to confirm continuity between the historical mineralisation and the mineralisation encountered by Tethyan. We note that the deposit appears to be very shallow, with very little exploration at depth with historical cores that have not been tested for precious metals. Adriatic have proven they can add value via interpretation of historical cores and follow up exploration drilling on the brownfield assets given their experience at Veovaca and Rupice. They have also demonstrated their ability to progress projects at extraordinarily fast pace delivering a Scoping study/PEA for the Vares Project within 2 years of their ASX listing and are on track to deliver a DFS within the next 7 months. We believe that Adriatic's management team can add significant value to the Serbian assets being acquired by the end of the calendar year. The acquisition firmly positions Adriatic as the pre-eminent Balkan polymetallic developer, whilst providing a longer-term development pipeline over and above the existing Vares Project. The acquisition provides an existing in-country team and relationships, whilst also providing the advantage of jurisdictional diversity to both sets of shareholders. Adriatic have stated that they intend on delivering a Maiden JORC resource estimate for Kizevak and Sastavci before the end of the calendar year 2020. Assuming a small uplift on the existing non-JORC deposits, we anticipate that between 8-10 million tonnes of ore could be delineated at grades between 6-9% Zn equivalent. Adriatic aim to deliver a PFS for the acquired assets by the end of the calendar year 2021, with permitting likely to occur in conjunction with feasibility studies. Overall, we consider this an acquisition that may prove to be extremely value accretive for Adriatic shareholders. We think the timing of the transaction at a cyclical and covid-affected low was strategically sound and well-executed. Our thesis is that the seeds of a base metal boom are being sown in the current market duress with many marginal, higher-cost mines being shut down; however, this dynamic will take time to play out. We believe that it's quite likely within the next 2-3 years, base metal prices will be considerably higher; leaving Adriatic well-positioned and strongly leveraged to a recovery in base metal spot prices. Disclaimer: This article does not take into account your investment objectives, particular needs or financial situation; and should not be construed as advice in any way. The author holds shares in Adriatic Metals (ADT). Self Wealth (SWF) is a platform with a unique product offering that offers flat-price online broking and ancillary services.At present there are 4 separate revenue streams:
There is significant scope for additional revenue streams to be developed at very low incremental cost that will become increasingly more valuable as the user base grows; we have made suggestions to the management team and it is to be seen whether these will be pursued. The company also has a number of significant organic growth opportunities within its current product lines: International trading, multiple trading account functionality and a new mobile app are all in development and have the potential to further increase the company's rate of growth in the near term.The strength of the self wealth model is its low touch, automated, highly scalable approach. Prior to the COVID19 curfews, it was growing strongly year on year: having grown all key metrics by more than 100% between January 2019 and January 2020. The effect of current curfews has been like pouring petrol onto an already roaring fire. In the most recent March quarter vs the December quarter: Trade volume grew over 100%, Client cash held grew over 150% and active users grew by almost 50% (achieving almost 70% of their previous annual growth target in 3 months). We believe this growth cannot be looked at in isolation but is a validation of the structural shift we see in the local online broking markets. Self Wealth is unequivocally the lowest cost provider in the market providing a large incentive for new users to try the service; this consequently leads to increased client 'stickiness'. The platform is very stable and in the recent market volatility, outperformed it's larger competitors (Commsec and Nabtrade) in terms of uptime. We note that market trade volumes are correlated with overall market volatility, meaning that Self Wealth may benefit from the higher than usual levels of market volatility. It is clear that Self Wealth has been profitable since the month of March and we expect this to continue going forward. Our information gathering suggests that April may very well be another record month of growth for the company. The increasing scale of the company's operations will lead to a fall in incremental costs. Our internal growth model suggests a base case EBIT projection for FY21 of ~$6.5 million; with our upper case scenario being multiples of the base case. Currently trading at an undemanding $45 million market cap, this represents a forward projected EBIT multiple of only 7x. This is an excerpt of Datt Capital's comprehensive research note on Self Wealth. To request a full copy please follow THIS LINK Disclaimer: This article does not take into account your investment objectives, particular needs or financial situation; and should not be construed as advice in any way. The author holds shares in SWF. The biggest investment risk today for investors is to be underweight equities. The ASX Total Return Index as at the end of March, was down approximately 27% from it's January highs. This means for an investor who bought the high and held through the volatility, they would need to achieve a 37% return from the end of March to breakeven.
According to the Credit Suisse Global Investment Returns Yearbook 2020, Australia has been the highest equity returns in global markets on average since 1900. Achieving a 7% real return calculated in US dollars, compounded over a long time frame is not something that can be ignored by any investor, local or global. It is a testament to our relatively stable political environment, our natural resource endowment and our growing population; all of which bodes well for potential future returns. Focusing on the present situation, we are clearly in an inflationary environment with widespread monetary and fiscal stimulus and support being provided by governments worldwide. In an inflationary environment, stocks are the only listed asset class that will provide a positive real rate of return; bonds and hybrids are vulnerable to the achievement of future negative real returns given interest rates are at their lowest rates in history. If you are a large investor who has been invested across asset classes, you have effectively have been made whole by the Australian government if you have had investments in local bonds and have sold. The next question in this instance would be: where to store your wealth to ensure it retains its purchasing power whilst achieving a nominal real rate of return? Virtually all fund managers are cautious and under-invested holding larger than usual cash weightings. As we've seen in the past, the majority are usually wrong in a risk-off environment filled with the perception of uncertainty. If the market continues to grind higher it increases the risk of manager under-performance and consequent pressure from investors to increase market exposure to invest at higher equity values. Another aspect to look at is could there be any news worse than what has transpired over the past 2 months? There is now significant data around the treatment and prevention of COVID-19. We know almost unequivocally that the elderly and obese with pre-existing conditions are highly susceptible whilst younger, healthy individuals have a relatively benign response to the virus. We believe that it's unlikely that COVID-19 will ever be fully eliminated for reasons beyond the scope of this article. We expect societal restraints to be relaxed sooner than later, with higher risk individuals maintaining quarantine. The government can mitigate the impact of vast social issues that are arising from an extended lockdown by loosening current restraints. Behavioural changes don't need to be mandated to be followed, for instance, the past impact of SARS affected social behaviour in the hardest-hit nations leading the widespread voluntary adoption of wearing face masks in public. Over the past 2 weeks, we have been selectively increasing our equity weighting with a focus on quality. Markets always move in anticipation of change and the seeds of every bull market are sown in times of uncertainty. We discuss 3 of our new positions in a recent podcast which can be found here: https://bit.ly/Datt-Media Disclaimer: This article does not take into account your investment objectives, particular needs or financial situation; and should not be construed as advice in any way Emanuel recently was interviewed by two of Australia's best known financial podcasters, Alan Kohler and Owen "Rask" Raszkiewicz.
The links for both interviews can be found via the following links: Alan Kohler - "A barbell approach to investing" (subscriber only) - https://bit.ly/Datt-Kohler Owen Rask - "Stock Pick: Emanuel Datt | Datt Capital" - https://bit.ly/Datt-Rask2 We are finding many attractive opportunities to deploy capital in this market, in companies both large and small. This 'risk-off' environment has thrown up a variety of bargains which we have started to selectively invest in, this may be an opportune time to consider an investment into the Fund. Investors and potential investors should be aware that performance fees will only be applicable should we achieve a return of approximately 25% above the Fund's current net asset value; whilst reiterating that we are the Fund's largest investor providing direct alignment with other investors. We welcome any enquiries which can be lodged via this link: https://bit.ly/Datt-Investor At present, there have been approximately 90,000 cases of clinically confirmed SARS-CoV-2 ('Coronavirus'). We estimate that there have been potentially double this number who have been afflicted by the virus but have not reported due to recoveries. There have been approximately 3,000 deaths and 45,000 recoveries, with approximately 42,000 active cases worldwide. Interestingly, the number of active cases worldwide is trending down despite the virus spreading geographically. Also, the recovery rate vs death rate is trending strongly up implying that medical professionals are becoming increasingly successful at treating the condition. Despite some expressing fearful, dystopian views over social and mass media, the actual growth of total cases is not exponential and appears to be flatlining in absolute terms. As can be expected, older individuals who have pre-existing health conditions are at higher risk of death from the virus. Much of the rhetoric has been around the rate of spread, or the average number of secondary cases arising from a primary case (R0 value). It is estimated that the R0 value for Coronavirus is between 2 & 3. Whilst prima facie, this appears to be high, especially when compounded, it is a small value relative to some other previously common diseases. Other factors that may determine how prevalent the virus becomes in a nation also include cultural factors as social customs - 'kissing cultures' as generally practiced in Italy and Iran have proven susceptible. Population density, public sanitation, and hygiene will also be large factors in the spread of the virus. Whilst general fears exist that the Coronavirus may become as prevalent as the Spanish Flu pandemic of 1918, we do not necessarily believe this hypothesis given there are several key differences in circumstances. Most prominent is the fact that modern sanitation and hygiene were still in their infancy during this period in the Western world, as well as the fact that the first World War led to greater densities of people in close quarters most who would have been geographically mobile. We are beginning to see green shoots out of the chaos. Our monitoring of traffic data from Chinese cities demonstrates an uptick in traffic volume over the past week relative to prior weeks; albeit at still depressed levels. Wuhan at the epicenter of the epidemic is currently experiencing traffic volume about 20% of average; whilst cities further afield appear to be slowly trending back towards their annual averages. We expect traffic volumes to recover fully in a month or two. We are also encouraged by historical data relating to periods immediately post an epidemic, with an average 6-month return of around +8.5%. Our evaluation of the data behind the Coronavirus outbreak along with the emergence of some attractive market opportunities leaves us with a positive sense regarding the medium-term market outlook.
Disclaimer: This article does not take into account your investment objectives, particular needs or financial situation; and should not be construed as advice in any way. |
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